| 09 December 2009
So the voters showed up, in relatively small numbers. Tom Schaller proclaims there were no surprises.
On the Democratic side, attorney general Martha Coakley won a four-way race with a projected 47 percent of the vote; with 78 percent of the vote, state senator Scott Brown defeated Jack Robinson for the Republican nomination. Though nobody can fill Kennedy's shoes metaphorically, Coakley and Brown square off in just six weeks to determine who will take the late senator's seat for the remainder of the current term.
The concern Schaller expresses seems far fetched. I doubt anyone thinks the GOP will succeed at getting Scott Brown elected, no matter how profoundly the tide is turning against the party in power. Schaller's "what if" feels like a hedge against the most unlikely of outcomes, aware that it will be forgotten when it doesn't come to pass, while still being able to point to his prescience if it comes to pass.
Coakley should not lose this election, given the fundamentals of the state. The only possibility for defeat would be a Blagojevich-esque scandal that rocks not only her reputation, but that of the state democratic party.
However, Kennedy's friend and aspirant to the late Senator's mantle, Chris Dodd is legitimately in hot water here in Connecticut.
Former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons is leading Dodd 48 percent to 35 percent. Linda McMahon is leading him 44 percent to 38 percent and Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, holds a one-point edge over Dodd, which is within the 4.5 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted on Monday, Dec. 7.
Simmons fails to impress me. McMahon, the maven of made-up wrestling match-ups, is equally uninspiring. I like Peter Schiff, but I suspect he'll get bounced in the primary. But Dodd's vulnerability in part illustrates the point about the safety of Kennedy's seat remaining in the hands of the Democrats. Dodd is vulnerable because he received preferential treatment from Countrywide Mortgage, a company over which as ranking member and now chairman of the Senate's Banking Committee he had regulatory authority. On its face, such treatment is influence peddling.
Dodd's refusal to release the documents surrounding his mortgage has allowed this story to simmer. Come November Dodd is certain to be done.
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