| 10 December 2009
Discontented Sox fans have progressed from a grousing core after New York finished off the Phillies in the World Series to a riotous rabble after the Yankees acquisition of Curtis Granderson. Unmoved by the rumblings and grumblings of the fans and the slings and arrows fired by Globe columnists, Theo Epstein worked to set up a deal that would move one of the Red Sox aging veterans and replace him with a promising young catcher. Of course money is involved, but such dispensations are the price teams pay for ill-considered contracts.
Mike Lowell appears headed to Texas. The framework of the deal is reportedly in place. In exchange for the veteran third baseman and three quarters of his 2010 salary, Boston will net 25 year old catching prospect Max Ramirez. Most fans echo the grumblings penned by Shaughnessy at the above link. Where's the impact bat? When will there be a move for Halladay? Why aren't they spending money? Don't they know we need to keep up with New York?
The complaints miss the bigger point. Teams succeed by blending young, developing players with established veterans. Boston's bats have grown older and the replacements in the up the middle positions (Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury) were never intended to be middle of the order boppers. The inclination is sign a free agent. But this year's crop of talent is underwhelming. Instead, Boston is going young, not to be cheap, as Shaughnessy implies, but because young talent will get better going forward. (More below the fold)
Max Ramirez fits that bill. Questions surround his fielding capability and Boston would be his fourth organization. His career minor league slash line was .312/.413/515 prior to 2009, where a wrist injury held him to .234/.323/.336 in AAA. The culmination of question marks has led Texas to sell relatively low, hoping that Lowell's veteran presence will help the Rangers unseat the Angels. In Boston, the goal remains making the playoffs and seeing what happens. Healthy entering his age 25 season, Ramirez is positioned for a breakout in the next season or two. Players as talented with the bat as Ramirez is sit in the middle of the order and create runs. Though fans won't see it immediately, this guy is an impact bat.
Ramirez is the second young impact hitter acquisition of the offseason. When the Red Sox dealt to young relievers to Florida for Jeremy Hermida, most saw him as a fourth outfielder, expecting Jason Bay's return or the acquisition of Matt Holliday. Hermida hit well enough in the minors to earn high praise as a top prospect not only in the Marlins system, but in all of baseball. His failure to translate that talent to the bigs has more to do with a home park that produced huge home-road splits. His road split (.276/.359/.456) more closely resembles his minor league numbers (.284/.398/.436) with additional pop. In a more hitting friendly environment, Hermida is likely to flourish. Some writers including your (not so) humble correspondence thought this when the move was made. This is the majority of an email I sent to the Bosox listserv on November 5th:
I wouldn't bet that he was acquired to be a backup. Here's a young lefty OF with a poor major league track record who played in a park with frustrating dimensions for a lefty. His minor league career included stops in the Sally, Florida State and Southern Leagues, no CAL or PCL. He 1) hit at every level and 2) sported a career .284 average with good doubles power. Next year is his age 26 season. I doubt they'll acknowledge it, but he'll be starting. Why deal for a lefty with Ellsbury and Drew among this he'd back up. Hermida is going to start. As a young player enthusiast, I'm ecstatic - which in fairness might be blinding my analysis, but I'll stand by my prediction.
Continuing the youth movement, in a minor transaction, Boston dealt for Boof Bonser, surrendering a low level minor leaguer to be named or cash. Bonser was a highly touted prospect who is coming off three lackluster seasons in Minnesota and most recently labrum and rotator cuff surgery. Bonser's struggles in Minnesota may relate more to the organizational philosophy of pitching to contact than his overall ability. In the big leagues he posted 10.2 H/9, 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. His minor league rate stats were radically different. A 7.7 H/9, 9.3 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. Boston's well-regarded shoulder strengthening program and organizational commitment to strikeouts may be the recipe to righting Bonser.
In each instance, Boston acquired a player whose failings were fixable and whose talent was once considered extremely impressive. While these moves fail to fire up the fans, they provide talent cheaply acquired and payroll flexibility that allows the club to make moves in July. That's proper resource allocation.
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