Written by Joe Tetreault | 26 January 2010

Lucas Vanderwarker pens a pinch hit piece at the LoHud Yankees Blog that discusses the possibility of Derek Jeter breaking Pete Rose's all time hits record. Vanderwarker's thesis is fairly simple, he could do it, it's not statistically impossible. And sure enough, he's right. It is not statistically impossible.

Let’s assume Jeter plays 10 more seasons to give him the same amount as Rose. Let’s go a step further and assume two of those seasons will be plagued with injury (let’s be honest, he is getting older). In eight healthy seasons, Jeter would need to average 157 hits to reach 4,000. Should he be healthy every season, he would only need 125 per season.

This leads us to the final number to discuss — 4,256. Again, let’s assume Jeter has eight healthy seasons left. He would need to average 189 hits per season. Should he remain healthy for 10 more years, he would only need 151 per year. With a current average of 196 hits per season, it is statistically possible.

However, possible does not infer any probability. After the jump, I'll discuss the obstacles Jeter would need to overcome as well as how historically rare such achievement is and for good measure give a peak into our five year crystal ball to see where things stand in 2014.

As both Rob Neyer and David Pinto point out, Jeter attaining this record remains an improbable feat in the best case scenario. Neyer and Pinto rely primarily on the certainty of decline at Jeter's age, as one would expect. Derek Jeter completed his age 35 season last year. He'll turn 36 in June. The road to 4,256 is a long slog through decline infested waters. Take a look at the batter's most similar to Jeter:

Barry Larkin

 

Roberto Alomar

 

Alan Trammell

 

Ryne Sandberg

<

Lou Whitaker

 

The common thread among the players is a near immediate decrease in productivity, health or both in the mid to late thirties. Of course, no player among this group comes close to Jeter in terms of effectiveness to this point of his career. With the exception of 2003's wrist injury, Jeter has enjoyed outstanding health playing a grinding game. Expecting that string of good fortune to continue is unrealistic. Neyer further notes that the Yankees roster construction creates a structural problem for Jeter as well.

[B]ecause of the Yankees' ultra-long-term commitments to Teixeira and Rodriguez, the two positions Jeter might play in his dotage are both likely to be filled by younger (albeit old) players with more powerful bats. It's one thing to suggest that Jeter will still be good enough to play when he's 43 -- which is highly doubtful anyway -- but it's another to figure out where he would play.

With the Yankees, anyway. Jeter's halo is such that some other organization might consider giving him 500 plate appearances at that age, just for the sake of having him around. But I don't see him taking a huge pay cut, and I don't see him playing for another team.

What strikes me as infinitely more likely is that his next contract runs for four or five years, taking him perhaps through his Age 41 season. As the years pile up, he'll transition to some sort of utility role and will leave the game with a great amount of grace.

The end result is that two primary functions for determining playing time (expectation of injury/decline and roster flexibility) go against any quest Jeter may have.

Neyer's remark about retiring with a great amount of grace is telling, too. Derek Jeter has typified much that is wonderful about baseball. As a Red Sox fan I long ago gave up rooting against Derek Jeter. He's played the game right, with passion and integrity. He's the one player who by appearing on a doping list would actually push me to look cynically at the greatest game. I cannot imagine Jeter hanging on after his skills have left him knowing he just needs another season of mediocrity to break that record.

But for the sake of argument, let's consider the future, using as simplistic approach as possible. Using a simplified three year running average with an arbitrarily conservative rate of decline, Jeter can be projected to post a batting line something like this going forward

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2010	36	153	706	623	96	193	29	3	13	64	17	7	72	101	.310	.384	.428	.812	267
2011	37	152	704	632	92	189	26	1	11	53	15	9	62	101	.299	.363	.396	.759	250
2012	38	150	692	619	84	178	25	1	13	58	17	11	65	107	.288	.357	.396	.753	245
2013	39	149	684	613	77	168	24	1	12	55	13	5	63	113	.274	.342	.376	.718	230
2014	40	147	676	609	72	161	22	1	12	53	12	4	60	118	.264	.330	.360	.690	219
		G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB

It's that age 40 season that I speculate would likely convince Jeter it's time to hang them up, just beyond Stan Musial (3,636 vs. 3,630). But yes, Lucas, what you have is an improbable, though not completely impossible scenario where Jeter can eclipse Rose. And maybe the baseball stars will align and in his age 40 season Jeter pass Hank Aaron leaving just Ty Cobb and Rose ahead of him. Just don't hold you're breath, mmm-kay?

UPDATE: Welcome Baseball Musings readers.  Tetreault-Vision has been in relative baseball hibernation but we're warming back up with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than a month.

UPDATE II: Fixed mispelling in the title. Doh!

UPDATE III: Friend of the Blog, Mike Cardano of Around the Horn sends a link to a piece of theirs that stirred the Cincy sports talk scene. The potential that Jeter could catch Rose already has Reds fans buzzing.

< Prev		Next >