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New England Politics

Written by Joe Tetreault | 12 January 2010

Is this:

a negative ad? The Globe says yes.

Republican Scott Brown fired back today at his rival's first negative ad of the campaign for US Senate, releasing his own television spot that blasts Democrat Martha Coakley for ducking issues and going on the attack.

"By now, you've probably seen the negative ads launched by Martha Coakley and her supporters," Brown says as he stands in a kitchen during the 30-second ad. "Instead of discussing issues like health care and jobs, they decided the best way to stop me is to tear me down."

[...]

In Brown's ad, the camera lingers on a photograph of Coakley with two fellow Democrats: Governor Deval Patrick, who has struggled in recent public opinion polls; and former House Speaker Salvatore F. DiMasi, who is fighting federal corruptions charges.

"The old way of doing things won’t work anymore," Browns says in the ad. "Their attack ads are wrong and go too far."

Brown looks into the camera and says, "I'm running in the name of every independent thinking voter to take on the political machine and their candidate. And with your help, I intend to win."

If the Globe is suggesting that the choice to link Coakley to Governor Patrick and House Speaker DiMasi is the negative part of the ad, I find that reasoning questionable. In comparison to the standard negative ad template in which one's opponent is depicted as possessing murderous intent toward puppies and kitties while citing some press report that confirms the opponent was in favor of resolution 4815162342 that denied funding to puppy and kitty rehabilitation shelters as part of the state's omnibus spending act of June 2006, Brown's ad is weak tea. He mentions that he was attacked. Tells the viewer the old ways of attack and tearing down don't work anymore and then affirms that he is in it to win it. The anti-puppy and kitty ratio is way, way off.

Also no mention that Martha Coakley can't spell Massachusetts, which makes her uniquely unsuited to represent Massachusetts, which would have been awesome.

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Written by Joe Tetreault | 12 January 2010

This is huge:

On top of the extraordinary success of yesterday's fundraising drive (almost three times the original goal of $500,000 raised) Brown's debate performance leaves him in position to seriously challenge for the seat. While the fundamentals still favor Coakley, she's playing prevent defense with a rapidly eroding lead. That's a little football lingo - I know you all know, but I'm not convinced the Coakley campaign is aware of football terminology. Let's take a look around the Interwebs to see the latest in the race. All that's below the fold. no comments

Written by Joe Tetreault | 11 January 2010

Martha Coakley is feeling the heat. On the day of Scott Brown's successful effort to raise $500,000 for the final push, the Democrat AG hammers him because, according to Matt Viser of the Boston Globe, he "would move the country backward if Massachusetts residents elected him to the US Senate next week." Vague pronouncements should be treated with a modicum of skepticism. Though obviously given these quotes, he's already pushed Martha Coakley back to the tried and true election plan of the Democrats since 2006.
Early in the race, Coakley would barely utter Republican nominee Scott Brown's name. This morning, she said it about a dozen times in 10 minutes. She criticized his stance on health care, gay marriage, and taxes as she sought to link Brown to former president George W. Bush.

"The only thing he has proposed is to continue to give the haves and have mores the tax cuts they got under the Bush-Cheney administration," Coakley said at a press conference in her campaign headquarters in Charlestown. "Not only is Scott Brown a roadblock to progress, he wants to go back to the failed policies of the Bush-Cheney administration."

Given the current sentiment in the US, one where the wrong track option's overwhelming agreement persists, despite the new failed polices of the Obama-Biden administration, suggesting Brown wants to go back to Bush-Cheney is hardly damning. Coakley's comments assume the electorate continue to blindly hate Bush even though he is nearly one year removed from office. Coakley's success or failure with this new old line of attack will indicate whether the democrats dust it off for the midterm elections this fall. After two cycles of running against Bush, they know it is a proven winner, but a Coakley loss to Brown would clearly demonstrate that in 2010, they would be going to the well too often. no comments

Written by Joe Tetreault | 11 January 2010

The headline proclaims that which the story refutes. Democrats Turn Out for Coakley tops Derek Gentile's story. But the devil's in the details or the lede:
The fare was light, and attendance was even lighter, but enough contributions came in to enable the organizers of yesterday's fundraiser for state Attorney General Martha Coakley to claim the outcome was a favorable one.
First observation, if your initial comment is about lunch, then you've got nothing. Secondly, if you're relying on the organizers of a fundraiser for confirmation it was a success, then you've got even less. Oh a-fisking we will go.
"I think it was a success," reported organizer Nora O'Brien. "We raised more than $1,500, and that's a good figure."

Local Democrats had hoped for at least 100 attendees. O'Brien estimated the number was close to that.

Did they try counting? If it gets tricky after ten gather nine friends and it's easy to get to 100. Seriously, I can except estimates for crowds larger than a 1000 or so, but if you didn't hit 100, hiding the actual number means it was a disappointing turnout.
But in reality, Sunday's event paralleled the listlessness with which voters statewide have treated the upcoming election to fill the unexpired Senate term vacated by the death of former Sen. Edward Kennedy. Coakley, the Democratic candidate, now leads Republican challenger Scott Brown by a relatively moderate nine points in the most recent statewide poll.
A ha! Listlessness. Ever the word campaign advisor grope for when describing their unstoppable juggernauts.
O'Brien said she was told by several male Democrats that scheduling the fundraiser for Sunday afternoon during a playoff appearance by the New England Patriots would probably deflate attendance. O'Brien admitted, however, that she isn't a football fan.

"I said ‘Who are they?' " she said, referring to the team that lost its playoff game to the Baltimore Ravens.

Critical thinking skills are not required on the Coakley campaign. As for who are they? Perhaps this is an indicator:

Scheduling a fundraiser concurrently with an NFL playoff game in an area that has become rabid in its following of the local team. Failure to adhere to Tip O'Neill's dictum ("All politics are local") results in those charges of a disconnect between a candidate and the electorate sticking. This should not be a goal.

Perhaps more importantly, Coakley was not there. O'Brien said Sunday's event was set up too late for the candidate to change her schedule.
Never mind. Too late. Disconnect would be a compliment. Sure, you're just up nine points, but all indicators are pointing to a closer race, and worse, as Nate Silver will tell you, special elections are difficult to accurately poll. But hey, you schedule during a playoff game and you can't get the candidate to show. That's a recipe for a successful fundraiser.
Those who were in attendance got to enjoy a very tasty spread of pizza, sushi, various types of finger food, cheese and fruit donated by the hosts, Jae's Spice.

And there were a number of the county's more prominent Democrats in attendance, including Berkshire County Sheriff Carmen C. Massimiano.

Please note, the juxtaposition of the buffet before the "prominent" local politicians. But it was tasty, very tasty. And the politicians were, ummm, politicians.
"I think this is an extremely key race," said Massimiano. "The attorney general is the nominee for a reason. She's a great candidate and her views on health care and her understanding of the law make it important we send her to the U.S. Senate."

"Well, for one thing, she's a candidate for the Senate who actually knows where Berkshire County is," said former state Sen. Andrea Nuciforo, referring to Coakley's Berkshire nativity. Coakley was born in Pittsfield and graduated from Drury High School in North Adams and Williams College in Williamstown.

Nuciforo was echoed by North Adams City Councilor Lisa Blackmer, who added that "it's time for a woman to represent us in the Senate."

"Women are very underrepresented [in the Senate]," said Joan Mears of Lenox. "I think it's refreshing to hear a women's point of view. Being a product of the North Adams public school system is an important connection, too."

"Having someone from this part of the state who knows we exist is important," concurred Pittsfield resident Eric Vincelette. "I think she'll bring us support and recognition."

Typical boilerplate.

So what have we learned. Coakley's staff couldn't be bothered to consider that there might be other priorities on a January Sunday in New England (and given the Pats game, that's not such a fatal failing), couldn't pull the candidate to speak to the people they are begging to fund the last push to the finish line and her local political allies are convinced she's doing a great job. But at least the food was tasty, very tasty.

UPDATE: Thanks to Professor William Jacobson who linked this story from his blog, which has become my go to site for the Scott Brown-Martha Coakley race.

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Written by Joe Tetreault | 11 January 2010

Republican Senate nominee for the Massachusetts special election Scott Brown is gradually gaining ground in the polls. Part of that is due to the anti-incumbent attitude nationwide. And though Coakley is not the incumbent, she represents the incumbent party. Worse, her campaign style has had an air of entitlement to it. Accurate quotes rather than being engaged and refuted are dismissed as outrageous slander. A easy win is now losable in the eyes of the pundit class, prompting worries among the Democrats. So losable it has convinced the Democrats to dispatch former President Bill Clinton and DNC national press secretary, Hari Sevugan to bolster Coakley's campaign. Tonight's final debate is the opportunity for Coakley to right her ship. Brown is playing with house money at this point. But finishing a close second is not a moral victory; it's a loss. Many of the blogs I read are encouraging contributions of either time or cash. If you're in Massachusetts and still wondering what you're going to do next Tuesday, now is the time to take a look at Brown's campaign and see what he stands for and whether he deserves your support. And whatever you do, don't listen to the pundits who typify Follow For Now's great lyric The blind leading the easily led. no comments