Sports
Measuring Brian Cashman challenges the most unbiased baseball observers. Is he good because he has the big budget? Or is the budget but a smokescreen masking how good he really is? His two deals this offseason illustrate the point. He dealt questionable prospects while preserving his biggest chips for use later, like at the trading deadline when some team is out of contention, eager to shed a contract and hungry for a Yankee prospect.
Vazquez returns to the Bronx, reviving his one act off-Broadway show from 2004. His 2009 was a career year as he pushed his peripheral rate stats to their best levels ever. They were: H/9-7.4, BB/9-1.8, K/9-9.8, HR/200-18.2. Once before had he seen such majestic rate stats. The last season before the Yankees acquired him. Ahh, yes, 2003, when those stats looked like this: H/9-7.7, BB/9-2.2, K/9-9.4, HR/200-24.3.
Vazquez enjoyed tremendous success in the first half of 2004, before slowing down. Jason @ IIATMS noted that injury concerns surrounded the righty at the end of that 2004 season, but nothing was ever demonstrably shown.
Vazquez's problem in New York was primarily the long ball, an issue amplified by the way baseball's rocket out of the new ballpark. Month by month, admitting that there is a sample size bias in looking at it that way, his HR/200 numbers started high (34.0) in April, dipped to 25.0 in May and spiked in July (42.9) never falling back below the April start. For the season, his HR/200 was 33.3. Javier Vazquez is a fine pitcher, especially as a third/fourth starter along with Andy Pettitte. His acquisition is not a game changer.
The other chip the Yankees added was Boone Logan, who slots in to fill the role evacuated by Phil Coke, dealt earlier this offseason in the Curtis Granderson deal. Logan has potential as a reliever. His exceptional K-rates in 2006-07 in AAA foretold a brilliant future in the bullpen. He's on his third organization now, and whether that lefty relief expert ever arrives is now the question, not when.
Atlanta's haul is not as notable, today. Melky Cabrera is derided as a fourth outfielder. But at 25, he still has upside. Last year he emerged as a capable major league hitter, after four years of on the job training. More highly touted talents, like Wily Mo Pena, have failed at that exercise. Cabrera's defensive numbers remain unclear, with UZR/150 putting him at a little more or a little less than average. Allowed to stick with one position may help.
Dunn has a gaudy K-rate last season, but surrendered much of that by walking the park when given a chance. He recently converted from starting, and may stick in the bigs as a swingman. More likely he is bound for Gwinnett and the chance to discover control.
The Braves' prize is righty Arodys Vizcaino. As an 18 year old, he made ten starts in short-season A ball and posted fantastic peripherals to go with a tiny 2.13 ERA. it's just 42.3 innings, but if he duplicates that success in Rome, which favors pitchers, he could be in AA Mississippi (another pitcher friendly stop in the Braves system) next year at age 20. A back injury shelved him late in the short season. The recently released Baseball America prospect top 10 for the Yankees had Vizcaino as the third best prospect in the system and credited him with the best curveball in the system.
All told, this deal saves the Braves money and may net them the best player in the deal. Pitchers are most likely to flame out in the minors, so Atlanta's jury will be out on this deal for some time to come. In New York, they get a player they thought they knew the last time they picked him up. Will the very talented Javier Vazquez show up this time? That question will be answered in October.
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Clinging to well-worn success frequently waylays teams searching for success. A common trap, discussed previously in this space, is paying for past performance while ignoring the likelihood of decline. For a season or two such deals are reasonable; the exposure a team faces is minimized. But long term contracts multiply risks rather than diminishing them.
But loyalty to individuals animates a fan base. Witness the adoration showered on Boston's erstwhile idiot caveman. Though he removed himself from Boston and famously joined the most-loathed team in the mindset of the fans, still they scribble songs of adulation to him.
Down the runway our new first baseman came with a bound.Yes it's a parody (very) loosely based on Twas the Night Before Christmas. And the Dirt Dogs are oft a merry band of pranksters. But the idea that Johnny Damon could theoretically rejoin the Red Sox and play first base credibly is no laughing matter. Nor is the notion that the Red Sox should contemplate Damon for not one or two but three years. Gracious.
His hair was so long, it grew over a foot,
And his jersey was dirty with pine tar and soot;
His old No. 18 was stamped on his back,
He bought it off Dice-K as soon as he unpacked.
His eyes—how they twinkled! His dimples how merry!
His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard was back on his chin don’t cha know;Then next spring in Ft. Myers, with his deal signed and sealed,
With new sunglasses on, he strolled out on the field;
He takes off his shirt, the girls start to scream,
He smiles just like Johnny, a pink hat fan’s dream.He spoke to the media, and went straight to his work,
He went into the cage; he worked on a quirk;
Then he turned on a ball, his arms coming around,
a loud crack of the bat, the ball took off with a bound;
It’s our old friend Johnny, Damon’s bat was so quick,
Balls lined one by one, looks like he's made out of brick
He was signed for three years, Theo finally had to bite,
To bring back the ’04 spirit, we’ll see The Idiot every night!
The same spirit appeared in previous seasons championing the return of Nomar Garciaparra or Pedro Martinez. The Pedro rehabilitation tour may yet kick into gear. (He would be great setting up Papelbon, right? - Umm, no)
While an affiliation, even a lasting one, can bring about warm reunions, like the one that saw Ellis Burks return to Fenway for the 2004 title. But no one, not even me, thought for a minute that Burks was a player to be relied upon for more than a bench role, even if he stayed healthy. Looking at Damon as anything other than a Red Sox (or Yankee at this point) alumnus is allowing those warm fuzzy feelings to interfere with good judgment.
Or to make a long post a little longer: Dude, back away from the cro-magnon man
no commentsBeltre, who blends the benefits of consistently excellent defense and generally above average production at the plate, is a player the Red Sox have long been thought to covet. He, and his agent, the Scott Boras, quickly evaluated the marketplace and suggested that a five year deal with a raise over the five year contract he signed to play with Seattle in December 2004 would be a reasonable opening offer. But that market has yet to develop for Beltre. Seattle moved on to Chone Figgins. Philadelphia brought Placido Polanco back to play third. Houston snapped up Pedro Feliz. San Francisco tabbed Mark DeRosa as plan A. Baltimore grabbed Garrett Atkins after he was non-tendered. The Red Sox failure to move Mike Lowell seemed to deter their pursuit. That left the bargain shopping Athletics and Twins to wait out Beltre and Boras.
The return of the Red Sox indicates they suspect Beltre can be had at a bargain price. Their renewed pursuit, in spite of Mike Lowell's limited trade value, illustrates just how highly Boston's front office values better fielding. It also highlights a philosophical shift taking place in Major League Baseball. The luster has worn off veteran free agents when compared to reasonably priced young talent. Free spending teams whose results don't match their payroll quickly find themselves unable to spend their way out of mediocrity. The Tigers will spend 2010 paying for their fiscal mistakes of 2007-2009.
Even though, the Red Sox have flashed more free agent cash than any other club, they remain aware that their expiring contract obligations (Lowell, David Ortiz, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek and Julio Lugo) will lighten their payroll burden. Despite a heavy interest in upgrading third base, they have been reluctant to exceed a specific cost threshhold. Boston's negotiations with Jason Bay demonstrate they are not apt to give away deals above the level they value a player. Oakland and Minnesota still have vacancies at third but with less expensive alternatives like free agents Miguel Tejada and Joe Crede they are unwilling to extend an offer to Boras' liking. Boston, meanwhile can use patience to ensure maximum value for the dollars they spend.
Beltre is discovering what Jason Bay found out - low cost options are exerting greater impact on the expected salaries the perceived best in class free agents can command. Boston's likely three man, left/center field platoon of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jeremy Hermida and Mike Cameron will cover two positions for less than the Mets will pay Bay for just one. New York, similarly, has quietly retooled their offense with inexpensive acquisitions like Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson, who will also cover two positions while combining to make less in 2010 than Bay.
While free agency still afford players the best opportunity to enrich themselves, clubs are becoming more aware of the way they inefficiently over pay for past performance in the free agent marketplace. After too many years of overspending on soon to be toxic baseball assets, a more efficient allocation of resources is at last emerging. And yes, Adrian Beltre along with Matt Holliday will still get big contracts, but they won't be nearly as big as they could have been.
no commentsPlayer A:
| Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | TEX | AL | 109 | 454 | 414 | 60 | 127 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 70 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 88 | .307 | .355 | .459 | .814 | 112 |
| 30 | TEX | AL | 122 | 462 | 403 | 70 | 120 | 28 | 4 | 10 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 46 | 62 | .298 | .380 | .462 | .842 | 121 |
| 31 | TEX | AL | 146 | 599 | 547 | 66 | 155 | 43 | 2 | 20 | 89 | 8 | 4 | 32 | 98 | .283 | .329 | .479 | .808 | 106 |
vs.
Player B:
| Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | TEX | AL | 87 | 317 | 280 | 37 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 64 | .275 | .350 | .461 | .811 | 103 |
| 30 | TEX | AL | 131 | 526 | 475 | 72 | 121 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 47 | 90 | .255 | .320 | .436 | .756 | 94 |
| 31 | TEX | AL | 147 | 690 | 620 | 102 | 194 | 44 | 6 | 19 | 79 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 99 | .313 | .371 | .495 | .866 | 121 |
Okay make your choice, who is who, and which of these two would you give a contract two. Both entered their free agency after their age 31 season, having played center field in Texas. One received a contract worth more than three times the value of the other.
The difference illustrates how an offensive environment like Texas is no longer taken at face value. The players are Marlon Byrd and Gary Matthews Jr. The Angels have struggled to unload Matthews who was supplanted by Torii Hunter, and who has consistently failed to live up to the massive deal that the Angels gave him.
Matthews is one of the best reasons why an artificial equalizer like a salary floor, one of the ideas discussed in an open thread over at The Biz of Baseball as a means of implementing a salary cap, are bad for baseball. If forced to make large offers, teams invariably will follow the pattern already exhibited by the clubs with money to burn, like the Angels. Signing Matthews has been an unqualified mistake. The Cubs may not get the player Marlon Byrd has been the last three years. But they won't be handicapped by a bloated and almost entirely untradable contract like the Angels have been.
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